I hope you haven't given up on the forum because no one has answered you for a few days - I was away or at least I would have responded - anyhow...
Yes, you shouldn't need to go any further than the bearing carrier. The carrier itself can be a bit of a "booger" to get out. Merc, in their infinite wisdom threaded the thing so it screws into the case.
You mention you have a manual, just keep in mind that the bearing carrier has a "Left-Hand" thread on it. When frustrated trying to remove one that has seized in, first nature may get you trying to turn it in the wrong direction.
In any event, when you get the carrier out, then your (feeling) on what to replace is in line with what I would change as well. Obviously the seal (23) because that's what you suspect is the issue and I would minimally replace the o-ring.
Do add some lube around the o-ring before you put things back together. Merc calls for 2-4-C, which is their own Teflon based grease, but in reality, any decent bearing grease would work fine - I tend to use high speed wheel bearing grease (from a discount auto place) for all my marine seal needs.
The only real problem you may have is initially getting the bearing carrier to move - they kinda weld themselves in over the years - otherwise, it's a fairly simple - straight forward process to change the seal and the o-ring.
It is also the perfect opportunity to get a look at the guts while you are there and a great time to swap out the clutch dog (one of the common failure pieces), if it looks suspect at all.